WNBA CBA delay: why there’s zero chance the new agreement is done before the deadline, what it means for players, owners, and the future of women’s basketball.
We’re officially less than two weeks away from the WNBA’s CBA deadline, and I’ll be honest with you — the odds of it being done in time? Zero percent. Like, actually 0%. If anything, calling it zero might even be too generous. The WNBA’s current landscape is chaos wrapped in uncertainty, and there’s absolutely no sign that this thing gets wrapped up neatly by October 31st.
And trust me, I’m not saying that for drama. There are just too many unknowns right now./
The Kathy Engelbert & Unrivaled Problem
The first big question mark is Kathy Engelbert. Nobody — and I mean nobody — knows what’s going to happen with her. Add to that the unknowns around Unrivaled, the new players’ league backed by Napheesa Collier and Breanna Stewart, and you’ve got yourself a complete mess.
Is Engelbert staying or going? Is Unrivaled actually going to launch strong? Will it directly challenge the WNBA, or just co-exist? Nobody knows. And when the two most visible players in your league are simultaneously building a rival product, it doesn’t exactly inspire confidence that negotiations are humming along smoothly.
Why Timing Could Break Everything
Let’s say, somehow, a deal doesn’t happen by the deadline. The ripple effect could be brutal.
You’ve got an expansion draft scheduled. You’ve got free agency. You’ve got training camp.
Now imagine all of that crashing into each other because the CBA isn’t sorted. The timeline doesn’t bend — it snaps. A late deal means a late season, and if the season doesn’t happen at all? Well, then we’ve got a real problem.
And make no mistake: a canceled 2026 season wouldn’t hurt everyone equally. Sure, Napheesa Collier and Breanna Stewart have their Unrivaled safety net. But the rest of the league? They’re not sitting on those kinds of financial cushions. Most players need the WNBA paychecks, endorsements, and exposure. A lockout hits them first — and hardest.
Adam Silver Will Step In
Now here’s where it gets interesting.
I don’t think Adam Silver — the NBA’s commissioner — will ever let this thing spiral out of control. He knows what’s at stake. The NBA is heavily invested in growing women’s basketball, not just in the U.S., but globally.
Silver’s long game isn’t just the WNBA — it’s global basketball dominance.
You’re talking NBA Europe. You’re talking partnerships with FIBA and Olympic integration. The NBA wants to be the center of the entire world basketball ecosystem, and that includes the women’s game.
And when you think about it like that, there’s no way Silver allows the WNBA to implode over a few million dollars in revenue sharing. Not when the league is finally gaining traction, with record ratings, bigger sponsorship deals, and international attention — even from Saudi investors trying to get a slice of the women’s basketball pie.
The Money Math Nobody Talks About
Let’s talk numbers. The league is probably only off by around $30–40 million total per season.
That’s roughly $3–4 million per team.
That’s the financial hill both sides are dying on right now. But here’s the kicker: in two or three years, the WNBA can renegotiate its media rights deal and make way more than that.
So yes — it’s a fight worth having. But it’s not worth losing a whole season over. The players know it, and Silver definitely knows it.
Players Want a Bigger Slice, Not Just More Cake
The biggest point of tension? The revenue split.
The players are reportedly hardballing for a 50-50 split with the owners — something they’ll never actually get. But that’s not the point. They’re using it as leverage to secure a much better fixed deal.
Basically, they’re saying: “We know you won’t give us 50%, so how about you just pay us more up front and lock it in?” It’s smart. It’s classic negotiation jiu-jitsu. But it also means this could drag on — because once you go public with those kinds of demands, it’s hard to walk them back without looking like you folded.
Why a CBA Matters (Even When It’s Messy)
Here’s the part a lot of fans don’t get:
You can’t just say “Pay the players what they deserve” and call it a day. Without a CBA, the whole league would collapse under its own chaos.
Take Joe Tsai, owner of the New York Liberty. The guy nearly had to sell his team just for letting his players fly private. That’s how strict and ridiculous some of these rules are. But those rules exist because without them, richer owners would just outspend everyone, and the smaller-market teams would vanish overnight.
The CBA isn’t just about fairness — it’s about survival. It’s the price of structure in a league that’s still figuring out how to balance growth with equity.
Final Thoughts/
So yeah, I’ll say it again — zero percent chance this CBA gets done before the October 31 deadline. Maybe it sneaks through by the time Unrivaled tips off in January, but even that’s a long shot.
Still, don’t panic.
This league isn’t going anywhere. Adam Silver won’t let it. The WNBA is too big, too visible, and too valuable to just die over paperwork.
What’s happening right now isn’t a disaster — it’s growing pains. Painful, messy, dramatic, yes — but necessary.
Because sometimes, zero percent chance just means we’re not ready yet.
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