So, Kelsey Mitchell, obviously, is a member of the Indiana Fever. And well, she’s going to be cored by the Fever. Worst-case scenario, she’s going to be cored by the Fever. She is going to be there. And I don’t know if she’ll be a player for the Fever next year, but she’s going to be on the roster or they’re going to have her rights.
Worst-case scenario, she’s cored and traded. But it does appear that Kelsey Mitchell is going to be a member of the Fever next year, which means the Indiana Fever seem like they’re going all in. It seems like they’re going all in for Kelsey Mitchell, which is a bold move, I will say. It shrinks their long-term championship window while widening their short-term championship window.
But let’s take a listen to what Caitlin Clark said yesterday. First priority is to sign Kelsey Mitchell back from Caitlin Clark. And it’s one of those things where I don’t think people realize. Everyone’s like, “Oh, if Kelsey wants to leave, she’s gone.” But it’s like, yeah, if Kelsey wants to leave, she is gone, but the Fever are going to get something back for her.
People are like, “Oh, she’s a restricted free agent.” No, the Fever are going to core her. She will be cored. Absolutely 100% she will be cored. But it’s clear that the Indiana Fever are planning on going for broke this year because let’s just say, hypothetically, she’s cored. What will you get in a core-and-trade for Kelsey Mitchell?
And by the way, people are like, “Oh, but she can’t sign and trade on a supermax.” As long as she doesn’t sign her contract. Core is just like restricted free agency rights. So, you don’t sign-and-trade the core free agency. From what I’m aware of, I think in the letter of the law, she can still sign a supermax with whatever team she gets cored to. They trade the core rights. You get the core rights. You don’t get the max contract.
I don’t know whether or not she can get a supermax, but the odds are that whoever is going to sign for her core rights are going to offer her a multi-year max contract. And if it’s about money, the Fever will offer her the supermax this year. It’s as simple as that. And she will get the supermax. Kelsey Mitchell will not leave money on the line.
Kelsey Mitchell taking the supermax instead of the regular max last year prevented the Indiana Fever from having 12 players on their team. Kelsey Mitchell will not leave money on the line. I am telling you that for a fact. She will not leave money on the line.
So, it just depends with Kelsey Mitchell whether or not she wants the long-term stability of getting a max contract from a team that is going to be able to pay her for multiple years. Whether she’s able to get a three- or four-year max contract. Which she might be. She’s either 30 or close to 30. I think she was born in ’96 if I’m not mistaken. So, she’s either 30 or close to 30.
It’s at the stage now where she’s a max-contract player. And she might get a three-year max and get a max till she’s 33, which with the way contracts will be rising, there’s probably a percentage increase year on year, she’d still be making really, really good money in that scenario. She would be making like 1.2 or 1.3 million a year.
She might sign a four-year, $4 million contract. Whereas with a one-year, $1.5 million contract, there’s no guarantee after that that you’re going to be able to get what you want long-term because if she has a down year, she’s a 5’8 guard. Unless you are Kelsey Plum, no team is going to take that risk long-term.
We’ve seen what happened with Arike Ogunbowale. No one’s going to sign Arike to a long-term max. Short-term, maybe. An expansion team or something, but no one’s signing Arike to a long-term max. Up until a year ago, Arike was seen as the superior player of the two.
It is literally just that playing with Paige Bueckers was such a negative on Arike stylistically. And by the way, I’m not blaming Paige. Their styles just do not mesh. Arike is a ball-dominant combo guard. Paige Bueckers is a ball-dominant combo guard, especially the way she played last year. Then they also had a non-spacer in Dallas. There was so much wrong with the Dallas Wings team. None of the pieces fit.
I remember talking about the Dallas Wings. I was like, “They could be really good or really bad.” I like these individual players, but none of the pieces fit.
But Kelsey coming back? If the Fever want Kelsey Mitchell, Kelsey Mitchell is back. It’s as simple as that. She’s not going to turn down the supermax. I don’t think she’s going to turn down a supermax. Even still, she can’t say no to the supermax. The Fever have her core rights.
So, obviously, with the Fever having her core rights, if she says she wants to leave, okay, they’re going to get a core-and-trade for her. If she wants to stay, they’re going to use her core rights and give her a supermax.
And a supermax this year is not the worst thing in the world for the Fever because they can afford it. What the Fever can’t do is afford Kelsey Mitchell next year.
Maybe the Fever are like, “Look, because of the way the core rights work this year, is it worth it?” Let’s just say if the best offer for Kelsey Mitchell is the fourth pick from the Washington Mystics. Then you’re like, “It’s not worth it. We’d rather have one year of Kelsey Mitchell and go for a title and let her walk in free agency.”
It makes sense.
For me, it all just depends on what deal is on the table. In previous core rules, you could have probably gotten yourself a massive haul. The Seattle Storm managed to get themselves the number two pick from the Los Angeles Sparks in a core-and-trade.
If you could somehow get Washington to give you the second pick or the fourth pick, their 2027 pick, which is in swap rights with the Chicago Sky, and maybe another young asset like Emily Engstler, then maybe you do it.
But maybe you don’t get that. Maybe you just get four for her. Then you’re like, “Okay, we’re better off keeping Kelsey Mitchell.”
Because people are like, “Oh, if Kelsey Mitchell wants to leave, she can just walk.” No, she can’t. If the Fever core Kelsey Mitchell, she either quits basketball, retires, sits out for a year and leaves $1.4 million on the table, or she plays for $1.4 million and signs a long-term deal next year.
She is not going to do that.
If the Fever core her and want to keep her, Kelsey Mitchell will be playing for the Indiana Fever next year. It’s as simple as that.
If it turns out they don’t want to keep her, or she doesn’t want to stay and wants a long-term max elsewhere, then maybe she’s gone. But I think the Indiana Fever are in a good spot anyway. No matter what happens, they’re either going to get a haul or go for a title.
Worst-case scenario, they get a haul. Best-case scenario, they win a title.
Caitlin Clark saying they want to go for Kelsey Mitchell means they are going for a title. Obviously, Caitlin Clark is going to say go for Kelsey Mitchell. She’s not going to say, “We should sacrifice next year because maybe in three or four years we might become elite.”
However, if you are a front office, that is the decision the front office needs to make, not Caitlin Clark. Not realistically any of the younger players. Every player is going to look short-term at this. They’re going to ask, “What’s going to get me the most wins today? What’s going to win me a title today?”
As we saw with LeBron James, he traded away Andrew Wiggins, who was one of the most hyped high school recruits ever, for Kevin Love because he wanted to win immediately.
So, a player like Caitlin Clark is always going to think like that.
The front office needs to have actual conversations about this. About who they’re going to keep and who they’re not going to keep.
That being said, the likelihood is that they’re going to core and keep Kelsey Mitchell. If they win a title, it’s not a bad decision. Even if they make the Finals or lose in the semis again, it’s not a bad decision.
However, it could very well be a bad decision long-term if they don’t have the pieces to compete with the Mystics in three or four years.
Because let’s be real, the Mystics are probably going to be bad for one more year. Could you imagine if they land Juju Watkins? Suddenly they have Juju, Sonia Citron, and Kiki Iriafen all on rookie deals.
Then they have the ability to sign a superstar point guard and a superstar center. Plus, they’ll have the fourth pick in this year’s draft, which could be Aaliyah.
Could you imagine if they have Aaliyah at the five, Kiki at the four, assuming Kiki develops a three-point shot? Aaliyah already has a three-point shot. Then you’ve got Juju, Citron, and a superstar point guard with depth on the bench because you can afford that.
The Fever are not beating that team no matter how good Caitlin and Aliyah Boston are. Just because of the way the contracts and rookie salaries work.
That is a really interesting thing to think about. It’s one of the reasons why GMs, presidents, and scouts get paid the big bucks.
And we also have to take into account the Golden State Valkyries are coming. Maybe the Fever are saying, “You know what? In four or five years, we don’t trust our front office enough to beat out the Valkyries.” Which might be the truth.
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